Remaining 2021 and current 2022 TRX numbers

[tripleB]

Update for anyone interested. Long time members who were around in the early days of scanning for production to being and the daily numbers were exciting will hopefully appreciate/understand my frustration in only just now coming up with this new approach as it would have saved me and estimated 500+ hours of scanning over the past 8 months.

I have had many users from the 5thgenram site asking me to do something similar for non TRX truck tracking and so I had to go digging for more information about all trucks built at SHAP. There is only 1 TRX Vin prefix (1C6SRFU9_) so it means I am only scanning for 1,000,000 potential VINS every day and even that takes multiple hours. If I add all other 1500 models you end up with hundreds of millions of potential VINs to scan for which wouldn't happen.

After a couple days of digging around on CDJR public websites, I was able to come up with a way to determine if a particular VIN has actually be assigned or not. What this means is that I now have a 3rd data point and instead of blindly scanning all 1,000,000 TRX VINs every day, I can scan the complete 1,000,000 list once a week or so to discover the valid VIN's and my daily scans can be for only the valid VIN's (Which is in the couple thousands vs millions)

The one flaw in this approach is that if the VIN has been assigned and then later the order is canceled it will still show up in this list because it is still a valid VIN but I assume the number of canceled/lost/damaged trucks is low compared to the total built so I'll consider it negligible.
I am going to be able to expand this approach to all 1500 model trucks and hopefully provide similar support over on 5thGenRam.

TLDR:
I came up with a new approach and after working through some code change, I now know there are only 1183 TRXs left that have been assigned 2021 VIN's that haven't been built yet, (some could be cancelled)
Using the same approach I know there are already 4488 2022 TRX's ordered as of today.

 

[Redtrex]

tripleB- you are awesome! Thanks for what you do.

 

[Grey03svt]

Awesome bro, just awesome!

 

[Anarchy99]

I actually thought there were way more 22s ordered for some reason. That’s sweet.

 

[Cux211]

Hmm almost 1200 21’s left doesn’t seem doable in the next 10 days

 

[akra11]

Thank tripleB, this is just amazing work you do.

 

[Bubba]

Hmm almost 1200 21’s left doesn’t seem doable in the next 10 days

Well he said that includes canceled or destroyed/whatever orders. So theoretically there could be hundreds of those in 2021. Probably possible to be done in 10 days.

 

[tripleB]

Hmm almost 1200 21’s left doesn’t seem doable in the next 10 days

Keep in mind I mentioned canceled/damaged orders and there is no way to know that. The VIN doesnt go away because the factory needs to be able to keep record of the truck and it makes sense that wouldn't release and reuse a VIN that was already assigned to another order, it just never progresses far enough to actually get a build sheet so we will never see it past that point. As we get closer to the end that is a larger percentage of what is left. If we assume at this point that is more than 10% and then looking at just the past 2 weeks since the plant reopened, they are averaging 91 TRX's per production day the numbers line up pretty close so I still feel like it is a much better estimate than we have had up to this point.

 

[Bshizzle]

Thanks for this!!! About how long do you think it will take them to work through the remaining 21s?

 

[Imaposer]

Hmm. Your methodology is much better than my WAG method, but I like my numbers better. I was at 650-700 left to build, and about 2500 22s already ordered.

 

[tripleB]

Thanks for this!!! About how long do you think it will take them to work through the remaining 21s?

I don't believe there has been any change to the reported 8/25 start of 2022 production so I think everyone is still assuming they will be done with 2021's by then.

That being said, there are plenty of reports of standard 2021 1500's getting canceled and resubmitted as 2022 models by the factory. Still no report of any TRX being canceled but those types of changes will effect the end/start date and it may overlap.

 

[Cux211]

Keep in mind I mentioned canceled/damaged orders and there is no way to know that. The VIN doesnt go away because the factory needs to be able to keep record of the truck starting production, it just never progresses far enough to actually get a build sheet so we will never see it past that point. As we get closer to the end that is a larger percentage of what is left. If we assume at this point that is more than 10% and then looking at just the past 2 weeks since the plant reopened, they are averaging 91 TRX's per production day the numbers line up pretty close so I still feel like it is a much better estimate than we have had up to this point.

Yeah I thought about the canceled orders but you mentioned the number is likely negligible so negligible to me is a hand full but like said there’s no way of knowing how many were canceled/destroyed what have you. Hopefully it pans out and the 8-25 date holds

 

[tripleB]

Hmm. Your methodology is much better than my WAG method, but I like my numbers better. I was at 650-700 left to build, and about 2500 22s already ordered.

Well, we can just shift the estimated canceled/damaged percentage up close to 50% at this point and then our numbers align! Since this is the first year I have done this I have no previous year model changes to compare to at the end of production. I very briefly considered adjusting things and pulling the entire 2020 1500 VIN list, build sheets and windows stickers, summarizing that entire list and then comparing it to RAM's reported 633,694 reported number. Then I decided it would be much easier to just wait 2 weeks and see what happens.

As for the 2022 numbers, I'm not sure how to explain that difference, I currently have just shy of 4500 verified 2022 TRX VINs in my list.

 

[tripleB]

Yeah I thought about the canceled orders but you mentioned the number is likely negligible so negligible to me is a hand full but like said there’s no way of knowing how many were canceled/destroyed what have you. Hopefully it pans out and the 8-25 date holds

Understood, poor explanation on my part. I was meaning negligible relative to the annual volume, so compared to the 13503 trucks built so far. Obviously as we approach the end of the year model that canceled percentage grows to eventually be 100% of the remaining VINs because any that werent canceled will have been built at that point.

 

[Tenhurst]

Update for anyone interested. Long time members who were around in the early days of scanning for production to being and the daily numbers were exciting will hopefully appreciate/understand my frustration in only just now coming up with this new approach as it would have saved me and estimated 500+ hours of scanning over the past 8 months.

I have had many users from the 5thgenram site asking me to do something similar for non TRX truck tracking and so I had to go digging for more information about all trucks built at SHAP. There is only 1 TRX Vin prefix (1C6SRFU9_) so it means I am only scanning for 1,000,000 potential VINS every day and even that takes multiple hours. If I add all other 1500 models you end up with hundreds of millions of potential VINs to scan for which wouldn't happen.

After a couple days of digging around on CDJR public websites, I was able to come up with a way to determine if a particular VIN has actually be assigned or not. What this means is that I now have a 3rd data point and instead of blindly scanning all 1,000,000 TRX VINs every day, I can scan the complete 1,000,000 list once a week or so to discover the valid VIN's and my daily scans can be for only the valid VIN's (Which is in the couple thousands vs millions)

The one flaw in this approach is that if the VIN has been assigned and then later the order is canceled it will still show up in this list because it is still a valid VIN but I assume the number of canceled/lost/damaged trucks is low compared to the total built so I'll consider it negligible.
I am going to be able to expand this approach to all 1500 model trucks and hopefully provide similar support over on 5thGenRam.

TLDR:
I came up with a new approach and after working through some code change, I now know there are only 1183 TRXs left that have been assigned 2021 VIN's that haven't been built yet, (some could be cancelled)
Using the same approach I know there are already 4488 2022 TRX's ordered as of today.

Still ignition orange unavailable.

 

[ekaz]

@tripleB, as one of those non-TRX owners, thank you!

 

[Two]

I can't believe you guys don't just check with chat about those numbers and dates.
They know everything.

 

[Tenhurst]

@tripleB, as one of those non-TRX owners, thank you!

At my dealer this morning.ready to go.just dotted the eyes and crossed the tees.

 

[akra11]

At my dealer this morning.ready to go.just dotted the eyes and crossed the tees.

Welcome to the waiting room

 

[Cux211]

Understood, poor explanation on my part. I was meaning negligible relative to the annual volume, so compared to the 13503 trucks built so far. Obviously as we approach the end of the year model that canceled percentage grows to eventually be 100% of the remaining VINs because any that werent canceled will have been built at that point.

Gotcha, it just clicked lol